Brussels is spending billions to reroute Asian trade away from Russia and a war‑torn Iran, yet much of the cargo still travels the Russian road. Kazakh President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev arrived in Brussels on June 23, met European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa, and observed the launch of the Connectivity Agenda Platform. The event included letters of intent from development banks worth up to two billion euros.
Jozef Síkela, the commissioner for international partnerships, described the Trans‑Caspian route — known as the Middle Corridor — as a “vital bridge between Europe and Asia”. Apostolos Tzitzikostas, responsible for transport, said stronger links mattered for European competitiveness. Marta Kos, the enlargement commissioner, told ministers the aim was to make Europe’s supply lines more secure.
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Nearly one billion dollars in financing was signed the same day
The Development Bank of Kazakhstan signed cheques close to one billion US dollars on that day. One tranche involved the European Investment Bank and another a syndicate of Commerzbank, JPMorgan Chase and Standard Chartered, backed by the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. A day earlier, Kazakh and European partners had signed four agreements worth 462 million US dollars.
Tokayev told a Kazakhstan‑EU roundtable that his government had spent more than 35 billion US dollars on transport and logistics over 15 years. He noted annual cargo on the route had risen fivefold since 2019, from 0.8 to 4.1 million tonnes, and set a target of 10 million.
The corridor has attracted what Waqar Ahmad, head of Nazarbayev University in Astana, called “massive momentum” after the Strait of Hormuz crisis. America and Israel have struck Iran throughout much of 2026, closing the Gulf and prompting shippers who had left the Red Sea to consider overland alternatives. Turkey’s transport minister, Abdulkadir Uraloğlu, spent the spring touring Gulf capitals to promote Türkiye as the western terminus.
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Enquiries reaching Astana and Baku were of a kind the route had rarely fielded before. KTZ Express, the freight arm of Kazakhstan’s national railway, ordered six vessels for the Caspian in May — four from Jiangsu Haizhongzhou Shipping Industry in China and two from the Baku Shipyard — each able to carry up to 537 containers. The order followed China Railway’s move in August 2025 to buy into Middle Corridor Multimodal (MCM), the venture that Azerbaijani, Kazakh and Georgian rail operators had set up in 2023.
Warnings of a ‘dead end’ as bottlenecks persist
Friedrich Conradi of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center warned in April that the route could become a “dead end”, with Georgia serving as its only gateway to Europe. The Baku‑Tbilisi‑Kars railway, the western spine, was already operating at capacity. Traffic on it had jumped 35 percent in a single week in 2025, causing delays at the border. The Georgian government continues to hesitate over a promised deep‑water port at Anaklia.
Rovshan Rustamov, chairman of Azerbaijan Railways (ADY), spent the spring courting customers, meeting the managers of Interrail Holding and METRANS at Transport Logistic China in June. His adviser, Emil Mammadov, said the priority for 2026 was “efficient, predictable eastbound delivery”, a nod to containers that return half‑empty after unloading in Europe. ADY had joined its Kazakh and Georgian counterparts in adding rolling stock and vessels through MCM.
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Woldemar Walter of the German Economic Team reported that freight forwarders will pay a premium for the corridor only when the service runs on time, which it often does not. Rates swing with demand and there is no published tariff to plan against. A 40‑foot container cost between 3,500 and 4,500 US dollars through the middle route in 2025, versus 2,800 to 3,200 US dollars via Russia. DHL advises shippers to allow 50 to 60 days when queues build at the crossings.
Russia’s northern line keeps running
On the northern line through Russia, trains continue to operate.