Ukraine and Moldova have initiated a complex process to join the European Union, marking the opening of the first of six accession clusters. The move brings cautious optimism, but officials emphasize that the journey to Brussels is lengthy and filled with challenges. Marta Kos, the EU’s commissioner for enlargement, described the task as one of “rewriting the statute book while the bombs are falling,” a reference to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Kos’s office in Brussels features a whiteboard covered in colored magnetic buttons, each representing a chapter of reform required for EU membership. Green marks completed chapters, yellow signals ongoing negotiations, and red indicates untouched areas. Ukraine’s cluster, which focuses on rule of law and democratic institutions, remains largely in red. The process, as it turns out, is anything but swift.
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On June 11, EU ambassadors from all 27 member states reached a unified negotiating stance, clearing the way for the first cluster to open. The bloc’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, and Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa announced the decision, setting the stage for talks in Luxembourg. For Kyiv and Chișinău, both granted candidate status in 2022, the moment was a long-awaited validation of their European aspirations.
Despite the progress, the road ahead is uncertain. Hungary, which initially opposed talks, lifted its veto in April after Ukraine agreed to protect its Hungarian minority. Even then, Prime Minister Péter Magyar made it clear: fast-track entry was not on the table. Zelensky’s goal of EU membership by 2027 remains unmet, highlighting the political complexities of the process.
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Ukraine’s accession raises practical challenges. With 35 million people and Europe’s largest farmland, it would join as the bloc’s poorest member. The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy would face strain, but Kos cites Poland’s 20-year transition as a possible model. The bloc’s focus, however, remains on resolving internal disagreements.
France holds a unique power: it can demand a referendum on any new member. In several EU states, less than half of voters support expanding the bloc. For Moldova’s President Maia Sandu, who won re-election in 2024 by a razor-thin margin, the 2030 deadline is both a promise and a pressure point. Her government must deliver on judicial reforms, a task complicated by lingering corruption cases.
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The first cluster, covering rule of law, is now open. But the EU’s enlargement commissioner warned that every step requires unanimous agreement. If delays persist, as they did for North Macedonia, talks could stretch to 2045. For now, Kos’s whiteboard remains a stark reminder of the work ahead—red, yellow, and green, but mostly red.